BRIEFING

EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service

Author: Enrico D’Ambrogio

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Members' Research Service

PE 628.265 – October 2018 EN

Prospects for EU-Asia connectivity

The 'European way to connectivity'

SUMMARY

Asia matters to Europe: home to the world's largest population and fastest-growing economies, Asia

is a major trade partner of the EU. Recognising this, the EU has promoted the Asia-Europe Meeting

(ASEM), established strategic partnerships with four Asian countries, intensified cooperation with

the Association of South-East Asia Nations (ASEAN), and negotiated or concluded free trade

agreements with several Asian countries.

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过去五十年，亚洲取得了引人瞩目的经济成就。数亿人口摆脱了贫穷，一批批经济体迈入了中等收入乃至发达经济体的行列。虽然该地区曾经几乎完全依赖外国的专业知识，但若干经济体如今已经处于技术进步的前沿。更加令人震惊的是，所有这一切发生的时间跨度不过两三代人而已，其成功源于下述因素的完美结合：通过贸易和外国直接投资（FDI）与全球经济相融合、高水平的储蓄率、对人力和实物资本的大力投资以及合理的宏观经济政策。

ADBI Working Paper Series

The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade and Economic Growth in Selected Economies in Asia

Normaz Wana Ismail

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Jamilah Mohd Mahyideen

No. 553

December 2015

Asian Development Bank Institute

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The China Pakistan Economic Corridor and Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Implications for South Asia’s Strategic Stability

Usama Nizamani

Crisis Stability, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), CPEC, Indo-Pak Nuclear Doctrines, Jammu and Kashmir

EIB financing in Asia

The EIB is the bank of the European Union. Founded in 1958 under the Treaty of Rome, it operates in the 28 EU Member States and more than 160 other countries. In 2016, the EIB Group signed loans totalling EUR 84 billion, with 94% of its financing for projects within the Member States, EFTA and Enlargement countries. Outside the EU, the Bank supports projects that contribute to economic development in countries that have signed association or cooperation agreements with the EU or its Member States. It does so at own risk to its balance sheet, using budgetary guarantees provided by Member States or under mandates from the European Parliament and Council of the European Union. It is the largest supranational borrower and lender in the world and the only international financial institution politically accountable to EU policymakers and institutions. This factsheet is one of a series covering regions of the world where the EIB is active.

Infrastructure for

Supporting Inclusive

Growth and Poverty

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Reduction in Asia

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THE RISE OF THE ROBOTS IN ASIA

Jurgen von Hollen, president of Universal Robots, discusses how robotics are working with human workers and driving transformation across industries. He speaks to Bloomberg's Haidi Lun on "Bloomberg Markets."

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MEETING ASIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS

Contents ............................................................................................................................................................................... iii

Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................................. vii

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Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................................... ix

Highlights .............................................................................................................................................................................. xi

Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................................................xx

Section 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3

Section 2. Infrastructure’s role and record: A brief review ........................................................................... 7

2.1. Infrastructure and its role in development .........................................................................................................7

2.2. Infrastructure provision in the region ................................................................................................................10

Section 3. Infrastructure investment in Asia ................................................................................................ 17

3.1. Measuring infrastructure investment ................................................................................................................19

Defining infrastructure ................................................................................................................................19

Data sources ..................................................................................................................................................22

Measuring infrastructure investment ........................................................................................................26

3.2. Infrastructure investment in developing Asia ..................................................................................................27

How much did Asian economies invest in infrastructure? ....................................................................28

Who tends to fund what infrastructure? ..................................................................................................30

How do other measures compare? ............................................................................................................31

3.3. Infrastructure investment and growth revisited ..............................................................................................33

Section 4. Estimating infrastructure needs for 2016–2030 ........................................................................ 39

4.1. Estimates without climate change adjustment ................................................................................................39

4.2. Comparison with Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia ......................................................................................41

4.3. Infrastructure investments with climate change adjustment........................................................................42

4.4. Estimates by sector, income level, and geography ..........................................................................................44

4.5. Infrastructure investment projections under different growth scenarios ...................................................47

Section 5. Meeting the challenge of infrastructure development .............................................................. 49

5.1 Infrastructure finance ............................................................................................................................................52

5.2. Scaling up public infrastructure investment in developing Asia: How much room is there? ..................55

5.3. How much private sector financing of infrastructure is required? ...............................................................59

5.4. Private participation in infrastructure: Some key issues ................................................................................65

The regulatory and institutional framework for private participation .................................................66

Private sector infrastructure finance .........................................................................................................70

5.5. Institutional issues and high-technology infrastructure ................................................................................74

Choice of technology in infrastructure projects ......................................................................................77

Section 6. Concluding remarks ...................................................................................................................... 85

References ..................................................................................................................................................... 87

Tables

Table 2.1: Average Economic Internal Rate of Return of ADB-Financed Projects (1966–present) ..............8

Table 3.1: Data Source and Coverage .......................................................................................................................23

Table 3.2: Alternative Measures of Infrastructure Investment ............................................................................26

Table 4.1: Infrastructure Investment Needs (Baseline Estimates) by Region, 2016–2030 ..........................40

Table 4.2: Comparison with Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia ..........................................................................42

Table 4.3: Projected Infrastructure Investments by Region, 2016–2030 (45 DMCs) ...................................43

Table 4.4: Infrastructure Investment Needs by Sector and Type, 2016–2030 ................................................45

Table 4.5: Infrastructure Investment Needs by Income and Geography, 2016–2030 ...................................45

Table 4.6: Climate Change-adjusted Infrastructure Investment Needs under Low and High

GDP Growth Scenarios, 2016–2030 .....................................................................................................47

Table 5.1: Estimated Annual Infrastructure Investment Needs and Gaps,

25 ADB Developing Member Countries, 2016–2020 ........................................................................50

Table 5.2: Risk Allocation Table .................................................................................................................................68

Table 5.3: Syndicated Loans to Infrastructure—Selected Economies, 1993–2015........................................72

Table 5.4: Size of Local Currency Bond Markets ....................................................................................................72

Table 5.5: Credit Ratings by Local Rating Agencies for Local-currency Corporate Bonds ............................73

Figures

Figure 2.1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita and Infrastructure Index...............................................8

Figure 2.2: Poverty Rate and Infrastructure Index ...................................................................................................10

Figure 2.3: Road Density and its Annual Growth .....................................................................................................10

Figure 2.4: Road Quality ...............................................................................................................................................11

Figure 2.5: Railroad Density and its Annual Growth ...............................................................................................11

Figure 2.6: Railroad Quality .........................................................................................................................................12

Figure 2.7: Electricity Generation Capacity and its Annual Growth ....................................................................12

Figure 2.8: Transmission and Distribution Loss ........................................................................................................13

Figure 2.9: Number of Power Outages in Firms (monthly) ....................................................................................13

Figure 2.10: Mobile Cellular Phones and its Annual Growth ...................................................................................14

Figure 2.11: Access to Improved Water Sources and its Annual Growth ..............................................................15

Figure 2.12: Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities and its Annual Growth .....................................................16

Figure 3.1: Subregional BUDGET + PPI infrastructure investment, 2011 ..........................................................28

Figure 3.2: BUDGET + PPI Infrastructure Investment Rate, various years ........................................................29

Figure 3.3: Public and Private Infrastructure Investment, by income group, 2011...........................................31

Figure 3.4: Sources of Budget Financing for Infrastructure: Domestic vs. Foreign, various years ..................32

Figure 3.5: Alternative Measures of Infrastructure Investment, Selected Economies, 2011 .........................33

Figure 3.6: Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Public Investment, 2011..................................................35

Figure 3.7: Economic Growth and General Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation or GFCF(GG) .....37

Figure 5.1: Key Sources of Infrastructure Finance ...................................................................................................55

Figure 5.2: Public and Private Infrastructure Investment, 2010–2014 ...............................................................55

Figure 5.3: Fiscal Space in Developing Asia ..............................................................................................................57

Figure 5.4: Meeting the Investment Gaps: Selected ADB Developing Member Countries, 2016–2020 .....59

Figure 5.5: Risks by PPP Type ......................................................................................................................................68

Figure 5.6: Historical Composition of PPI, Debt Versus Equity, various years ...................................................70

Figure 5.7: An Ecosystem for Planning and Implementing Infrastructure Projects ...........................................75

Figure 5.8: Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by Technology ..........................................................................83

Boxes

Box 2.1: Microeconomic Studies of Impacts of Transport Infrastructure ...........................................................9

Box 3.1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Type of Asset and Institutional Sector

Using National Accounts.............................................................................................................................18

Box 3.2: Improving Infrastructure Investment Estimates Using Disaggregated Data .....................................20

Box 3.3. The Role of State-owned Enterprises in Infrastructure Investment in Indonesia ............................24

Box 3.4: Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Infrastructure Investment: How They Differ ...........................25

Box 3.5: How Well Do Infrastructure Investment Measures Track Physical Infrastructure Stock ................34

Box 3.6: Global Distributions of Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Construction Excluding Buildings

or GFCF(CE) ..................................................................................................................................................36

Box 3.7: Infrastructure Investment in the Republic of Korea ...............................................................................38

Box 4.1: Estimating Regional Infrastructure Investment Needs Beyond 2020 ................................................41

Box 4.2: Factoring Climate Change and Disaster Risk into Infrastructure Design ...........................................44

Box 4.3: Asia’s Explosive Growth in Subway Development ..................................................................................46

Box 4.4: Comparison with Other Infrastructure Needs Estimates .....................................................................48

Box 5.1: How Much Infrastructure is Needed? Comparing the People’s Republic of China

with Developed Economies.........................................................................................................................51

Box 5.2: Infrastructure Investment Needs in the Pacific ......................................................................................53

Box 5.3: User Charge ...................................................................................................................................................58

Box 5.4: Land Value Capture ......................................................................................................................................60

Box 5.5: Multilateral Development Banks and Infrastructure Finance ..............................................................63

Box 5.6: Green Taxation ..............................................................................................................................................65

Box 5.7: Successfully Promoting Public-Private Partnerships in the Philippines .............................................67

Box 5.8: Public-Private Partnerships and Contingent Liabilities in Power Sector Development ..................69

Box 5.9: The Asian Development Bank and Credit Guarantees ..........................................................................74

Box 5.10: Coordinating City Infrastructure ................................................................................................................76

Box 5.11: Institutions for Planning and Executing Infrastructure Projects

in the People’s Republic of China ..............................................................................................................78

Box 5.12: Managing State Highways and Road Development: the Madhya Pradesh

Road Development Corporation ................................................................................................................79

Box 5.13: Asian Development Bank Project Helps Provide Reliable Quality Water Supply to Dhaka ...........81

Box 5.14: From Desperate to Dependable—Turning on Phnom Penh Taps ........................................................82

Box 6.1: ADB’s Role in the Region .............................................................................................................................86

Appendixes

Appendix 3.1: DMC Coverage in Selected Figures and Tables ..................................................................................95

Appendix 4.1: Methodology and Data for Estimating Infrastructure Investment Needs ....................................95

Appendix 4.2: GDP Growth Projections: Methodology ..............................................................................................97

Appendix 4.3: Infrastructure Unit Costs .......................................................................................................................99

Appendix 4.4: Profiles of Economies ........................................................................................................................... 101

Appendix 5.1: Country Information on Fiscal Space for Infrastructure Investment .......................................... 102

Appendix 5.2: Principal Value-capture Instruments ................................................................................................ 106

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