ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MEETING ASIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS
Contents ............................................................................................................................................................................... iii
Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................................. vii
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Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................................... ix
Highlights .............................................................................................................................................................................. xi
Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................................................xx
Section 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Section 2. Infrastructure’s role and record: A brief review ........................................................................... 7
2.1. Infrastructure and its role in development .........................................................................................................7
2.2. Infrastructure provision in the region ................................................................................................................10
Section 3. Infrastructure investment in Asia ................................................................................................ 17
3.1. Measuring infrastructure investment ................................................................................................................19
Defining infrastructure ................................................................................................................................19
Data sources ..................................................................................................................................................22
Measuring infrastructure investment ........................................................................................................26
3.2. Infrastructure investment in developing Asia ..................................................................................................27
How much did Asian economies invest in infrastructure? ....................................................................28
Who tends to fund what infrastructure? ..................................................................................................30
How do other measures compare? ............................................................................................................31
3.3. Infrastructure investment and growth revisited ..............................................................................................33
Section 4. Estimating infrastructure needs for 2016–2030 ........................................................................ 39
4.1. Estimates without climate change adjustment ................................................................................................39
4.2. Comparison with Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia ......................................................................................41
4.3. Infrastructure investments with climate change adjustment........................................................................42
4.4. Estimates by sector, income level, and geography ..........................................................................................44
4.5. Infrastructure investment projections under different growth scenarios ...................................................47
Section 5. Meeting the challenge of infrastructure development .............................................................. 49
5.1 Infrastructure finance ............................................................................................................................................52
5.2. Scaling up public infrastructure investment in developing Asia: How much room is there? ..................55
5.3. How much private sector financing of infrastructure is required? ...............................................................59
5.4. Private participation in infrastructure: Some key issues ................................................................................65
The regulatory and institutional framework for private participation .................................................66
Private sector infrastructure finance .........................................................................................................70
5.5. Institutional issues and high-technology infrastructure ................................................................................74
Choice of technology in infrastructure projects ......................................................................................77
Section 6. Concluding remarks ...................................................................................................................... 85
References ..................................................................................................................................................... 87
Tables
Table 2.1: Average Economic Internal Rate of Return of ADB-Financed Projects (1966–present) ..............8
Table 3.1: Data Source and Coverage .......................................................................................................................23
Table 3.2: Alternative Measures of Infrastructure Investment ............................................................................26
Table 4.1: Infrastructure Investment Needs (Baseline Estimates) by Region, 2016–2030 ..........................40
Table 4.2: Comparison with Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia ..........................................................................42
Table 4.3: Projected Infrastructure Investments by Region, 2016–2030 (45 DMCs) ...................................43
Table 4.4: Infrastructure Investment Needs by Sector and Type, 2016–2030 ................................................45
Table 4.5: Infrastructure Investment Needs by Income and Geography, 2016–2030 ...................................45
Table 4.6: Climate Change-adjusted Infrastructure Investment Needs under Low and High
GDP Growth Scenarios, 2016–2030 .....................................................................................................47
Table 5.1: Estimated Annual Infrastructure Investment Needs and Gaps,
25 ADB Developing Member Countries, 2016–2020 ........................................................................50
Table 5.2: Risk Allocation Table .................................................................................................................................68
Table 5.3: Syndicated Loans to Infrastructure—Selected Economies, 1993–2015........................................72
Table 5.4: Size of Local Currency Bond Markets ....................................................................................................72
Table 5.5: Credit Ratings by Local Rating Agencies for Local-currency Corporate Bonds ............................73
Figures
Figure 2.1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita and Infrastructure Index...............................................8
Figure 2.2: Poverty Rate and Infrastructure Index ...................................................................................................10
Figure 2.3: Road Density and its Annual Growth .....................................................................................................10
Figure 2.4: Road Quality ...............................................................................................................................................11
Figure 2.5: Railroad Density and its Annual Growth ...............................................................................................11
Figure 2.6: Railroad Quality .........................................................................................................................................12
Figure 2.7: Electricity Generation Capacity and its Annual Growth ....................................................................12
Figure 2.8: Transmission and Distribution Loss ........................................................................................................13
Figure 2.9: Number of Power Outages in Firms (monthly) ....................................................................................13
Figure 2.10: Mobile Cellular Phones and its Annual Growth ...................................................................................14
Figure 2.11: Access to Improved Water Sources and its Annual Growth ..............................................................15
Figure 2.12: Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities and its Annual Growth .....................................................16
Figure 3.1: Subregional BUDGET + PPI infrastructure investment, 2011 ..........................................................28
Figure 3.2: BUDGET + PPI Infrastructure Investment Rate, various years ........................................................29
Figure 3.3: Public and Private Infrastructure Investment, by income group, 2011...........................................31
Figure 3.4: Sources of Budget Financing for Infrastructure: Domestic vs. Foreign, various years ..................32
Figure 3.5: Alternative Measures of Infrastructure Investment, Selected Economies, 2011 .........................33
Figure 3.6: Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Public Investment, 2011..................................................35
Figure 3.7: Economic Growth and General Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation or GFCF(GG) .....37
Figure 5.1: Key Sources of Infrastructure Finance ...................................................................................................55
Figure 5.2: Public and Private Infrastructure Investment, 2010–2014 ...............................................................55
Figure 5.3: Fiscal Space in Developing Asia ..............................................................................................................57
Figure 5.4: Meeting the Investment Gaps: Selected ADB Developing Member Countries, 2016–2020 .....59
Figure 5.5: Risks by PPP Type ......................................................................................................................................68
Figure 5.6: Historical Composition of PPI, Debt Versus Equity, various years ...................................................70
Figure 5.7: An Ecosystem for Planning and Implementing Infrastructure Projects ...........................................75
Figure 5.8: Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by Technology ..........................................................................83
Boxes
Box 2.1: Microeconomic Studies of Impacts of Transport Infrastructure ...........................................................9
Box 3.1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Type of Asset and Institutional Sector
Using National Accounts.............................................................................................................................18
Box 3.2: Improving Infrastructure Investment Estimates Using Disaggregated Data .....................................20
Box 3.3. The Role of State-owned Enterprises in Infrastructure Investment in Indonesia ............................24
Box 3.4: Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Infrastructure Investment: How They Differ ...........................25
Box 3.5: How Well Do Infrastructure Investment Measures Track Physical Infrastructure Stock ................34
Box 3.6: Global Distributions of Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Construction Excluding Buildings
or GFCF(CE) ..................................................................................................................................................36
Box 3.7: Infrastructure Investment in the Republic of Korea ...............................................................................38
Box 4.1: Estimating Regional Infrastructure Investment Needs Beyond 2020 ................................................41
Box 4.2: Factoring Climate Change and Disaster Risk into Infrastructure Design ...........................................44
Box 4.3: Asia’s Explosive Growth in Subway Development ..................................................................................46
Box 4.4: Comparison with Other Infrastructure Needs Estimates .....................................................................48
Box 5.1: How Much Infrastructure is Needed? Comparing the People’s Republic of China
with Developed Economies.........................................................................................................................51
Box 5.2: Infrastructure Investment Needs in the Pacific ......................................................................................53
Box 5.3: User Charge ...................................................................................................................................................58
Box 5.4: Land Value Capture ......................................................................................................................................60
Box 5.5: Multilateral Development Banks and Infrastructure Finance ..............................................................63
Box 5.6: Green Taxation ..............................................................................................................................................65
Box 5.7: Successfully Promoting Public-Private Partnerships in the Philippines .............................................67
Box 5.8: Public-Private Partnerships and Contingent Liabilities in Power Sector Development ..................69
Box 5.9: The Asian Development Bank and Credit Guarantees ..........................................................................74
Box 5.10: Coordinating City Infrastructure ................................................................................................................76
Box 5.11: Institutions for Planning and Executing Infrastructure Projects
in the People’s Republic of China ..............................................................................................................78
Box 5.12: Managing State Highways and Road Development: the Madhya Pradesh
Road Development Corporation ................................................................................................................79
Box 5.13: Asian Development Bank Project Helps Provide Reliable Quality Water Supply to Dhaka ...........81
Box 5.14: From Desperate to Dependable—Turning on Phnom Penh Taps ........................................................82
Box 6.1: ADB’s Role in the Region .............................................................................................................................86
Appendixes
Appendix 3.1: DMC Coverage in Selected Figures and Tables ..................................................................................95
Appendix 4.1: Methodology and Data for Estimating Infrastructure Investment Needs ....................................95
Appendix 4.2: GDP Growth Projections: Methodology ..............................................................................................97
Appendix 4.3: Infrastructure Unit Costs .......................................................................................................................99
Appendix 4.4: Profiles of Economies ........................................................................................................................... 101
Appendix 5.1: Country Information on Fiscal Space for Infrastructure Investment .......................................... 102
Appendix 5.2: Principal Value-capture Instruments ................................................................................................ 106
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