ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MEETING ASIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS

Contents ............................................................................................................................................................................... iii

Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................................. vii

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Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................................... ix

Highlights .............................................................................................................................................................................. xi

Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................................................xx

Section 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3

Section 2. Infrastructure’s role and record: A brief review ........................................................................... 7

2.1. Infrastructure and its role in development .........................................................................................................7

2.2. Infrastructure provision in the region ................................................................................................................10

Section 3. Infrastructure investment in Asia ................................................................................................ 17

3.1. Measuring infrastructure investment ................................................................................................................19

Defining infrastructure ................................................................................................................................19

Data sources ..................................................................................................................................................22

Measuring infrastructure investment ........................................................................................................26

3.2. Infrastructure investment in developing Asia ..................................................................................................27

How much did Asian economies invest in infrastructure? ....................................................................28

Who tends to fund what infrastructure? ..................................................................................................30

How do other measures compare? ............................................................................................................31

3.3. Infrastructure investment and growth revisited ..............................................................................................33

Section 4. Estimating infrastructure needs for 2016–2030 ........................................................................ 39

4.1. Estimates without climate change adjustment ................................................................................................39

4.2. Comparison with Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia ......................................................................................41

4.3. Infrastructure investments with climate change adjustment........................................................................42

4.4. Estimates by sector, income level, and geography ..........................................................................................44

4.5. Infrastructure investment projections under different growth scenarios ...................................................47

Section 5. Meeting the challenge of infrastructure development .............................................................. 49

5.1 Infrastructure finance ............................................................................................................................................52

5.2. Scaling up public infrastructure investment in developing Asia: How much room is there? ..................55

5.3. How much private sector financing of infrastructure is required? ...............................................................59

5.4. Private participation in infrastructure: Some key issues ................................................................................65

The regulatory and institutional framework for private participation .................................................66

Private sector infrastructure finance .........................................................................................................70

5.5. Institutional issues and high-technology infrastructure ................................................................................74

Choice of technology in infrastructure projects ......................................................................................77

Section 6. Concluding remarks ...................................................................................................................... 85

References ..................................................................................................................................................... 87

Tables

Table 2.1: Average Economic Internal Rate of Return of ADB-Financed Projects (1966–present) ..............8

Table 3.1: Data Source and Coverage .......................................................................................................................23

Table 3.2: Alternative Measures of Infrastructure Investment ............................................................................26

Table 4.1: Infrastructure Investment Needs (Baseline Estimates) by Region, 2016–2030 ..........................40

Table 4.2: Comparison with Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia ..........................................................................42

Table 4.3: Projected Infrastructure Investments by Region, 2016–2030 (45 DMCs) ...................................43

Table 4.4: Infrastructure Investment Needs by Sector and Type, 2016–2030 ................................................45

Table 4.5: Infrastructure Investment Needs by Income and Geography, 2016–2030 ...................................45

Table 4.6: Climate Change-adjusted Infrastructure Investment Needs under Low and High

GDP Growth Scenarios, 2016–2030 .....................................................................................................47

Table 5.1: Estimated Annual Infrastructure Investment Needs and Gaps,

25 ADB Developing Member Countries, 2016–2020 ........................................................................50

Table 5.2: Risk Allocation Table .................................................................................................................................68

Table 5.3: Syndicated Loans to Infrastructure—Selected Economies, 1993–2015........................................72

Table 5.4: Size of Local Currency Bond Markets ....................................................................................................72

Table 5.5: Credit Ratings by Local Rating Agencies for Local-currency Corporate Bonds ............................73

Figures

Figure 2.1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita and Infrastructure Index...............................................8

Figure 2.2: Poverty Rate and Infrastructure Index ...................................................................................................10

Figure 2.3: Road Density and its Annual Growth .....................................................................................................10

Figure 2.4: Road Quality ...............................................................................................................................................11

Figure 2.5: Railroad Density and its Annual Growth ...............................................................................................11

Figure 2.6: Railroad Quality .........................................................................................................................................12

Figure 2.7: Electricity Generation Capacity and its Annual Growth ....................................................................12

Figure 2.8: Transmission and Distribution Loss ........................................................................................................13

Figure 2.9: Number of Power Outages in Firms (monthly) ....................................................................................13

Figure 2.10: Mobile Cellular Phones and its Annual Growth ...................................................................................14

Figure 2.11: Access to Improved Water Sources and its Annual Growth ..............................................................15

Figure 2.12: Access to Improved Sanitation Facilities and its Annual Growth .....................................................16

Figure 3.1: Subregional BUDGET + PPI infrastructure investment, 2011 ..........................................................28

Figure 3.2: BUDGET + PPI Infrastructure Investment Rate, various years ........................................................29

Figure 3.3: Public and Private Infrastructure Investment, by income group, 2011...........................................31

Figure 3.4: Sources of Budget Financing for Infrastructure: Domestic vs. Foreign, various years ..................32

Figure 3.5: Alternative Measures of Infrastructure Investment, Selected Economies, 2011 .........................33

Figure 3.6: Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Public Investment, 2011..................................................35

Figure 3.7: Economic Growth and General Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation or GFCF(GG) .....37

Figure 5.1: Key Sources of Infrastructure Finance ...................................................................................................55

Figure 5.2: Public and Private Infrastructure Investment, 2010–2014 ...............................................................55

Figure 5.3: Fiscal Space in Developing Asia ..............................................................................................................57

Figure 5.4: Meeting the Investment Gaps: Selected ADB Developing Member Countries, 2016–2020 .....59

Figure 5.5: Risks by PPP Type ......................................................................................................................................68

Figure 5.6: Historical Composition of PPI, Debt Versus Equity, various years ...................................................70

Figure 5.7: An Ecosystem for Planning and Implementing Infrastructure Projects ...........................................75

Figure 5.8: Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by Technology ..........................................................................83

Boxes

Box 2.1: Microeconomic Studies of Impacts of Transport Infrastructure ...........................................................9

Box 3.1: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Type of Asset and Institutional Sector

Using National Accounts.............................................................................................................................18

Box 3.2: Improving Infrastructure Investment Estimates Using Disaggregated Data .....................................20

Box 3.3. The Role of State-owned Enterprises in Infrastructure Investment in Indonesia ............................24

Box 3.4: Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Infrastructure Investment: How They Differ ...........................25

Box 3.5: How Well Do Infrastructure Investment Measures Track Physical Infrastructure Stock ................34

Box 3.6: Global Distributions of Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Construction Excluding Buildings

or GFCF(CE) ..................................................................................................................................................36

Box 3.7: Infrastructure Investment in the Republic of Korea ...............................................................................38

Box 4.1: Estimating Regional Infrastructure Investment Needs Beyond 2020 ................................................41

Box 4.2: Factoring Climate Change and Disaster Risk into Infrastructure Design ...........................................44

Box 4.3: Asia’s Explosive Growth in Subway Development ..................................................................................46

Box 4.4: Comparison with Other Infrastructure Needs Estimates .....................................................................48

Box 5.1: How Much Infrastructure is Needed? Comparing the People’s Republic of China

with Developed Economies.........................................................................................................................51

Box 5.2: Infrastructure Investment Needs in the Pacific ......................................................................................53

Box 5.3: User Charge ...................................................................................................................................................58

Box 5.4: Land Value Capture ......................................................................................................................................60

Box 5.5: Multilateral Development Banks and Infrastructure Finance ..............................................................63

Box 5.6: Green Taxation ..............................................................................................................................................65

Box 5.7: Successfully Promoting Public-Private Partnerships in the Philippines .............................................67

Box 5.8: Public-Private Partnerships and Contingent Liabilities in Power Sector Development ..................69

Box 5.9: The Asian Development Bank and Credit Guarantees ..........................................................................74

Box 5.10: Coordinating City Infrastructure ................................................................................................................76

Box 5.11: Institutions for Planning and Executing Infrastructure Projects

in the People’s Republic of China ..............................................................................................................78

Box 5.12: Managing State Highways and Road Development: the Madhya Pradesh

Road Development Corporation ................................................................................................................79

Box 5.13: Asian Development Bank Project Helps Provide Reliable Quality Water Supply to Dhaka ...........81

Box 5.14: From Desperate to Dependable—Turning on Phnom Penh Taps ........................................................82

Box 6.1: ADB’s Role in the Region .............................................................................................................................86

Appendixes

Appendix 3.1: DMC Coverage in Selected Figures and Tables ..................................................................................95

Appendix 4.1: Methodology and Data for Estimating Infrastructure Investment Needs ....................................95

Appendix 4.2: GDP Growth Projections: Methodology ..............................................................................................97

Appendix 4.3: Infrastructure Unit Costs .......................................................................................................................99

Appendix 4.4: Profiles of Economies ........................................................................................................................... 101

Appendix 5.1: Country Information on Fiscal Space for Infrastructure Investment .......................................... 102

Appendix 5.2: Principal Value-capture Instruments ................................................................................................ 106

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