Summary

Constellations consisting of tens, hundreds, and even thousands of satellites in non-geostationary orbits (NGSO), sometimes referred to as mega-constellations, are now being proposed and developed to bring affordable broadband Internet and other satellite services to the world. Hundreds of launches may be required to deploy and maintain these satellites. Even after successfully navigating through rounds of investor funding and regulatory approvals, launch capacity and delays pose a significant risk to constellations, their stakeholders, and policymakers because the constellations must be deployed within a defined period, and failure to do so has onerous consequences. This paper defines the magnitude of the NGSO constellation challenge in terms of number of satellites proposed, regulatory deployment requirements, the uncertainty in future launch demand, and the inevitability of launch delays. Sources and consequences of launch delays are identified, and risk management and simulation tools are described.