Current and emerging trends in the aerospace sector

How shifting priorities and developing technologies are shaping the industry today and into the future

Author

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Matthew Price

Client Manager

July 2018

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Future of M&A in Aerospace and Defense

KPMG International

home.kpmg/aerospacedefense

March 2019

What’s Next for Aerospace and Defense

A Vision for 2050

Summary

This paper explores United States (U.S.) space policies and how they apply to satellite missions that may not fit the typical satellite mission mold. The paper presents a “roadmap” for policy compliance for satellites from diverse agencies and identifies areas where further work is underway to address the challenges posed by the evolution of the space industry. The paper lays out a coherent way forward for all small satellites navigating the approval quagmire, and for mission managers of multi-payload rideshares who wish to smooth the path to launch approval.

A Space Policy Primer: Key Concepts, Issues, And Actors

Introduction

New space policy questions are emerging, affecting both the traditional spacefaring nations and new entrants.

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At a time when plans are being made by the United States and others to return humans to the moon and eventually reach Mars while also exploring more distant worlds robotically, what should the overall goals of America’s civil space exploration program be, and what strategy is most conducive to achieving them? What role will international partners play in such endeavors? How best can civil and commercial space sectors work together in service of space science and exploration? And how best can the United States provide leadership in space traffic management (STM)?

The rapid transformation of the commercial space sector also drives a number of questions. Governments and their regulatory regimes struggle to keep up with the ever-increasing presence of private reusable rockets, large-scale constellations of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO), in-space servicing, and potential asteroid mining. What domestic and international governance structures and internationally accepted guidelines, standards, and best practices need to be in place to prevent misunderstanding among nations and to protect the sustainability of the space environment? How can the interests of industry, free markets, and national security best be balanced when they are in opposition?

The United States national security space enterprise also faces numerous challenging questions. The increasing capability of rivals to threaten space assets and to exploit space for military advantage is being used to argue for more rapid development of more survivable space capabilities. Is the United States’ current military space acquisition system up to the task? How will the Space Force deter conflict in space and prepare for future wars in space if deterrence fails? And how should U.S. allies and partners share the burden of collective defense in space?

The U.S. military also plays a vital role in tracking space debris and monitoring traffic in space. As malevolent threats to U.S. national security space assets multiply, how will the military, the Department of Commerce, and commercial stakeholders contribute to space situational awareness (SSA) data-sharing and space traffic management (STM)? Will international actors buy into U.S. initiatives? Or will these issues be addressed internationally from a more bottom-up approach?

U.S. policymakers will need to address these questions while working with experts from across many fields, from many different government agencies and from many different countries and commercial enterprises. This primer provides some key concepts for categorizing and understanding space activities, provides an overview of international space law, and explains some common rationales that help justify the significant upfront investments required for space activities. It also provides a brief sketch of how the U.S. government is organized to address these difficult space policy questions. Ideally, this primer will provide the reader with the foundation upon which a comprehensive understanding of the complex issues surrounding U.S. national space policy may be built. More discussions about a variety of space policy topics can be found on the Center for Space Policy and Strategy homepage.*

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As space becomes more crowded and contested it becomes ever more important to prevent a conflict in, directed toward, or from space. Without any actual experience of combat in space, however, we can only speculate about what role the space domain might play in a breakdown of deterrence and the start of a war. This inexperience with space’s role in conflict complicates social science’s already limited understanding of how wars begin and unfold—with their complex interplay of political goals, differing levels of commitment, the friction generated in any actual fighting, and the inherently flawed people (on all sides) making decisions. As the strategic environment changes, we must explore ways to strengthen the contribution of U.S. military space capabilities to deterrence while also enhance any advantages should deterrence fail. Focusing on the credibility of U.S. space capabilities in some narrow areas reveals steps that could be made to strengthen their deterrent value.

Summary

As the United States and the world discuss the possibility of conflict extending into space, it is important to have a general understanding of what is physically possible and practical. Scenes from Star Wars, books, and TV shows portray a world very different from what we are likely to see in the next 50 years, if ever, given the laws of physics. To describe how physics constrains the space-to-space engagements of a conflict that extends into space, this paper lays out five key concepts: satellites move quickly, satellites move predictably, space is big, timing is everything, and satellites maneuver slowly. It is meant to be accessible to policymakers and decisionmakers, helping to frame discussions of space conflict. It does not explore geopolitical considerations.

Summary

This paper analyzes the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the United States Space Force approaches to digital engineering implementation along with an investigation of the possibilities for a more coordinated approach between the two. The potential advantages of a coordinated approach are discussed. Five inquiry-based evaluation criteria have been developed for application to four different approaches that might be embraced by the two organizations. A qualitative comparison of the four approaches is presented in the form of an analysis matrix and description. While the assessment does not reveal a clearly optimal path, the process informs the value of a coordinated approach over independent approaches.