A Tale of Tier 3 Cities

Author/Editor:Kenneth Rogoff ; Yuanchen Yang

Publication Date:September 30, 2022

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This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.

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People’s Republic of China : 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China

Author/Editor:International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific DeptPublication Date:January 8, 2021

PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

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STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2020 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION

The Chinese economy continues its fast recovery from the health and economic crisis as a strong containment effort and macroeconomic and financial policy support have mitigated the crisis impact and helped the economy rebound. However, growth is still unbalanced as the recovery has relied heavily on public support while private consumption is lagging. Rising financial vulnerabilities and the increasingly challenging external environment pose risks to the outlook. Important reforms have progressed despite the crisis, but unevenly across key areas.

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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

World Economic Outlook, July 2019

July 2019

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Still Sluggish Global Growth

Global growth remains subdued. Since the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the United States further increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising tariffs on a subset of US imports. Additional escalation was averted following the June G20 summit. Global technology supply chains were threatened by the prospect of US sanctions, Brexit-related uncertainty continued, and rising geopolitical tensions roiled energy prices.

Against this backdrop, global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than in the April WEO projections for both years). GDP releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, point to weaker-than-anticipated global activity. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back on long-range spending. Accordingly, global trade, which is intensive in machinery and consumer durables, remains sluggish. The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences.

Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside. They include further trade and technology tensions that dent sentiment and slow investment; a protracted increase in risk aversion that exposes the financial vulnerabilities continuing to accumulate after years of low interest rates; and mounting disinflationary pressures that increase debt service difficulties, constrain monetary policy space to counter downturns, and make adverse shocks more persistent than normal.

Multilateral and national policy actions are vital to place global growth on a stronger footing. The pressing needs include reducing trade and technology tensions and expeditiously resolving uncertainty around trade agreements (including between the United Kingdom and the European Union and the free trade area encompassing Canada, Mexico, and the United States). Specifically, countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue to pressure others for reforms. With subdued final demand and muted inflation, accommodative monetary policy is appropriate in advanced economies, and in emerging market and developing economies where expectations are anchored. Fiscal policy should balance multiple objectives: smoothing demand as needed, protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth potential with spending that supports structural reforms, and ensuring sustainable public finances over the medium term. If growth weakens relative to the baseline, macroeconomic policies will need to turn more accommodative, depending on country circumstances. Priorities across all economies are to enhance inclusion, strengthen resilience, and address constraints on potential output growth.

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《世界经济展望》

2018年10月

国际货币基金组织

People’s Republic of China : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China

Author/Editor:International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publication Date: July 26, 2018 Electronic Access:Free Full Text. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file Summary:China is at an historic juncture. After decades of high-speed growth, the authorities are now focusing on high-quality growth. Whether and how this shift is carried through will determine China’s development path for decades to come. Recent strong growth momentum and significant financial de-risking progress reduce the probability of a near-term abrupt adjustment. Rebalancing accelerated in some dimensions, especially as the current account surplus continued to fall and growth became less dependent on credit, but progress slowed in many other dimensions as exports drove the growth pick up, rather than consumption. And while credit growth has slowed, it remains excessive.

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Series: Country Report No. 18/240

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WP/17/151

The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs:Revisiting the Lerner Symmetry Result

by Jesper Lindé and Andrea Pescatori

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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published

to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers

are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its

Executive Board, or IMF management.

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Global Horse Trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council

Axel Dreher§

Jan-Egbert Sturm‡

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James Raymond Vreeland†

This version: January 2009

Abstract

We investigate whether temporary members of the United Nations Security Council receive

favorable treatment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) using panel data for 197

countries over the period from 1951 to 2004. Our results indicate a robust positive relationship

between temporary Security Council membership and participation in IMF programs, even after

accounting for economic, political, and country-specific factors. There is also evidence that

Security Council membership reduces the number of conditions included in IMF programs. IMF

loans seem to be a mechanism by which the major shareholders of the Fund can win favor with

voting members of the Security Council.

Keywords: IMF, United Nations Security Council, Voting, Aid

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THE IMF’S APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE POLICY ISSUES

ISSUES PAPER FOR AN EVALUATION BY THE

INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OFFICE (IEO)

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June 13, 2008

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