Understanding the Limits of Artificial Intelligence for Warfighters

Volume 4, Wargames

by Edward Geist, Aaron B. Frank, Lance Menthe

Insights from the Plan Blue 21 Game

Examining the Role of Sensing and Partner and Allied Contributions to Competition with Russia in the Arctic

by Elizabeth M. Bartels, David A. Ochmanek, Nathaniel Edenfield, Brien Alkire, Katherine Anania, Michael Bohnert, James Bonomo, Julia Brackup, Hannah Jane Byrne, Rachel Costello, et al.

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Table of Contents

Chapter One

Introduction

Chapter Two

Summary of Game Play

Chapter Three

Insights and Recommendations for Policymakers

Appendix A

Plan Blue 21 Scenario Assumptions Memo

Appendix B

Plan Blue 21 Steady-State Game Mechanics

Appendix C

Crisis Cards Developed to Support Plan Blue 21

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The Information Warfighter Exercise Wargame Rulebook

Christopher Paul

Ben Connable

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Jonathan Welch

Nate Rosenblatt

Jim McNeive

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Preparedness Exercises 2.0:

Alternative Approaches to Exercise Design That Could Make

Them More Useful for Evaluating – and Strengthening –

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Preparedness

Brian A. Jackson and Shawn McKay

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Implementing exercise programs to

prevent falls: systematic descriptive review

Victoria Shier1* , Eric Trieu2 and David A. Ganz3

ELIZABETH M. BARTELS, ADAM R. GRISSOM, RUSSELL HANSON, CHRISTOPHER A. MOUTON

OCEANS 17 Tabletop

Exercise

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Findings and Recommendations

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Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics

by David A. Shlapak, Michael Johnson

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Russia's recent aggression against Ukraine has disrupted nearly a generation of relative peace and stability between Moscow and its Western neighbors and raised concerns about its larger intentions. From the perspective of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the threat to the three Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — former Soviet republics, now member states that border Russian territory — may be the most problematic of these. In a series of war games conducted between summer 2014 and spring 2015, RAND Arroyo Center examined the shape and probable outcome of a near-term Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The games' findings are unambiguous: As presently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members. Fortunately, it will not require Herculean effort to avoid such a failure. Further gaming indicates that a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades — adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities — could suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states.

Key Findings

As Presently Postured, NATO Cannot Successfully Defend the Territory of its Most Exposed Members

Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants in and out of uniform playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours.

Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad.

It Is Possible to Avoid Such Consequences

A force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades — adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities — could suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states.

While not sufficient to mount a sustained defense of the region or to achieve NATO's ultimate end state of restoring its members' territorial integrity, such a posture would fundamentally change the strategic picture as seen from Moscow.

The Expense Needs to Be Balanced Against the Consequences of Not Rethinking the Current Posture

While this deterrent posture would not be inexpensive in absolute terms, it is not unaffordable, especially in comparison with the potential costs of failing to defend NATO's most exposed and vulnerable allies.

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Introduction

General C. Robert Kehler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Senior Leader Perspective

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Building the Political Consensus to Deter Attacks on

Our Nation’s Space Systems

US Representative Terry Everett . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Employing Elements of National Power in Schriever V

VADM Carl V. Mauney . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Schriever V Wargames: The Boundaries of Space and Cyberspace

Lt Gen Larry D. James . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Schriever V - A UK Perspective

AVM T. M. “Timo” Anderson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

A Space Doctrine for Soldier, Scientist, and Citizen: What It Will Take to

Secure the Space Domain

Ambassador Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Political-Military Implications of Space Warfare on Homeland Defense

and Allied Relations

BG Robert J. Felderman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Schriever V Wargame

The Value of the Domain

Col Robert F. Wright, Jr. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Coalition Space Operations: Lessons Learned from Schriever V Wargame

Mr. Joseph D. Rouge and Mr. Dennis L. Danielson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Schriever V: Lessons Learned - A Canadian Perspective

Col François Malo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Industry Perspective

The Strategic Value of Schriever V: Policy and Strategy Insights

for the Quadrennial Defense Review

Mr. Marc J. Berkowitz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Schriever V: Managing and Understanding Consequences to Military Space

Maj Gen Franklin “Judd” Blaisdell, USAF, retired . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Historical Perspective

Schriever Wargames: The Battle for the Ultimate High Ground

Mr. James C. Mesco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Book Review

Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the

Battlefield to the Boardroom

Dr. Rick W. Sturdevant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

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