WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

World Economic Outlook, July 2019

July 2019

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Still Sluggish Global Growth

Global growth remains subdued. Since the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the United States further increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising tariffs on a subset of US imports. Additional escalation was averted following the June G20 summit. Global technology supply chains were threatened by the prospect of US sanctions, Brexit-related uncertainty continued, and rising geopolitical tensions roiled energy prices.

Against this backdrop, global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than in the April WEO projections for both years). GDP releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, point to weaker-than-anticipated global activity. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back on long-range spending. Accordingly, global trade, which is intensive in machinery and consumer durables, remains sluggish. The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences.

Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside. They include further trade and technology tensions that dent sentiment and slow investment; a protracted increase in risk aversion that exposes the financial vulnerabilities continuing to accumulate after years of low interest rates; and mounting disinflationary pressures that increase debt service difficulties, constrain monetary policy space to counter downturns, and make adverse shocks more persistent than normal.

Multilateral and national policy actions are vital to place global growth on a stronger footing. The pressing needs include reducing trade and technology tensions and expeditiously resolving uncertainty around trade agreements (including between the United Kingdom and the European Union and the free trade area encompassing Canada, Mexico, and the United States). Specifically, countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue to pressure others for reforms. With subdued final demand and muted inflation, accommodative monetary policy is appropriate in advanced economies, and in emerging market and developing economies where expectations are anchored. Fiscal policy should balance multiple objectives: smoothing demand as needed, protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth potential with spending that supports structural reforms, and ensuring sustainable public finances over the medium term. If growth weakens relative to the baseline, macroeconomic policies will need to turn more accommodative, depending on country circumstances. Priorities across all economies are to enhance inclusion, strengthen resilience, and address constraints on potential output growth.

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21/11/2018 - Global economic growth remains strong but has passed its recent peak and faces escalating risks including rising trade tensions and tightening financial conditions, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.

Growth forecasts for next year have been revised down for most of the world’s major economies. Global GDP is now expected to expand by 3.5% in 2019, compared with the 3.7% forecast in last May’s Outlook, and by 3.5% in 2020.

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In many countries, unemployment is at record lows and labour shortages are beginning to emerge. But rising risks could undermine the projected soft landing from the slowdown. Trade growth and investment have been slackening on the back of tariff hikes. Higher interest rates and an appreciating US dollar have resulted in an outflow of capital from emerging economies and are weakening their currencies. Monetary and fiscal stimulus is being withdrawn progressively in the OECD area.

The shakier outlook in 2019 reflects deteriorating prospects, principally in emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina and Brazil, while the further slowdown in 2020 is more a reflection of developments in advanced economies as slower trade and lower fiscal and monetary support take their toll.

Remarks by Angel Gurría

OECD Secretary-General

21 November 2018 - OECD, France

Ambassadors, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Welcome to the launch of our latest OECD Economic Outlook. Before handing over to our Chief Economist Laurence Boone, who will present our projections and policy challenges, I would like to reflect on one theme that comes out clearly from this Outlook: that is, the need for international co-operation.

Today’s Economic Outlook points to a global economy that is losing steam, with the pace of global expansion easing from 3.7% this year to 3.5% in both 2019 and 2020. And one major reason for this is a breakdown in co-operation. The imposition of new tariffs and uncertainty about further restrictive trade actions are contributing to a marked slowdown in trade growth, dampening global investment and threatening jobs and living standards. The international rules-based system that has governed trade since the end of the Second World War has been undermined.

This is not to say that existing trade rules are sacrosanct and should not be updated and revised: the world has evolved and there are new challenges to maintain a global level playing field. But protectionism is not the answer! We don’t see any winners from trade wars, only losers. We must work together to protect and strengthen the international rules-based system. We need to nurture and refine that system and the institutions that support it.

In addition, this Outlook highlights that beyond the loss of momentum that is our central projection, there are a number of risks that, if realised, could result in a much worse situation. It also notes that if the global economy does slow sharply, policymakers will be much less well placed to respond with adequate stimulus than they were last time.

In such circumstances, we see a good case for a coordinated response, particularly on fiscal policy. And even though this is not our central scenario, we think the major economies should be preparing the ground for such a coordinated response now. Again, we see international cooperation and collective approaches as essential to good outcomes.

Last but not least, the special chapter of this Economic Outlook focuses on the decoupling of median wages from productivity in many OECD economies over recent decades. This phenomenon is, by the way, among those highlighted by the OECD’s Inclusive Growth initiative, which emphasises the need to ensure that the benefits of growth are distributed widely, not just by ex post income redistribution, but ex ante. But this decoupling also suggests – even if only tentatively – yet another opportunity for fruitful international cooperation.

The chapter notes that the decoupling can be decomposed into a declining-labour-share component and a rising-wage-inequality component. And both these components may be linked to the increasing importance of “superstar firms” resulting from winner-take-most dynamics that we now seem to be seeing in many sectors of our economies.

More work is needed to clarify the picture, but several developments that we have been documenting point in this direction: higher corporate concentration in many sectors, rising mark-ups for leading firms, a tendency for labour’s share in income to fall, widening productivity dispersion across firms and declining business dynamism.

Since superstar firms are often large multinationals, the ability of traditional domestic competition policies to restrain their market power may be limited. We need to find new ways of designing competition policies that are effective in a highly globalised and digitalised world, ways that involve ever-greater international cooperation.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Our Economic Outlook is sending a clear message: the stability and the improvement of the global economy needs stronger, more effective and more inclusive international co-operation. This is very much in tune with the message that we heard in last week’s Paris Peace Forum. The moving remembrance ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe 10 days ago reminded us that nationalistic and non-cooperative approaches can have disastrous consequences.

Next week’s G20 Summit in Buenos Aires will provide an excellent opportunity for Leaders to show that those lessons have been learned, by advancing international co-operation and working to resolve differences.

At the OECD we are supporting the G20 to find effective multilateral solutions to the challenges of our highly interconnected world, for example with our work on meeting the tax challenges arising from the digital economy. The OECD will continue to contribute to multilateral initiatives that bring about better policies for better lives in our member countries and around the world. Thank you.

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中国宏观经济展望：数说中国

瑞银

2018年5月

Brighter Prospects, Optimistic Markets, Challenges Ahead

FOR RELEASE

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

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In Davos: January 22, 2018, 3:00 p.m.

In Washington, DC: January 22, 2018, 9:00 a.m. EST

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Chapter 2: Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Drivers and Prospects

Despite the acceleration in population aging in almost all advanced economies over the past decade, aggregate labor force participation rates show divergent trajectories. Headline numbers also hide strikingly different shifts in the labor force attachment of different groups of workers: participation has increased among prime-age women and, more recently, older workers, but it has fallen among the young and among prime-age men. This chapter finds that aging and the drag from the global financial crisis can explain a significant share of the decline in the participation of men during the past decade. However, the rising participation of women underscores the importance of other factors in shaping participation decisions. The analysis suggests that labor market policies and institutions, together with structural changes and gains in educational attainment, account for the bulk of the dramatic increase in the labor force attachment of prime-age women and older workers in the past three decades. At the same time, technological advances such as automation, while beneficial for the economy as a whole, have weighed moderately on participation rates.

Chapter 3: Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality

The declining share of manufacturing jobs in overall employment has been a concern for policymakers and the broader public alike in both advanced economies and some developing economies. This concern stems from the widely held belief that manufacturing plays a unique role as a catalyst for productivity growth and income convergence and a source of well-paid jobs for less-skilled workers. Against that backdrop, this chapter aims to provide new evidence on the role of manufacturing in the dynamics of output per worker and in the level and distribution of labor earnings. The two main takeaways from the analysis are that (1) a shift in employment from manufacturing to services need not hinder economy-wide productivity growth and the prospects for developing economies to gain ground toward advanced-economy income levels, and (2) while the displacement of workers from manufacturing to services in advanced economies has coincided with a rise in labor income inequality, this increase was mainly driven by larger disparities in earnings across all sectors.

Chapter 4: Is Productivity Growth Shared in a Globalized Economy?

Technology is a key driver of improvements in income and standard of living. Historically, technological developments have been concentrated in a few large industrialized economies. Therefore, the way technology diffuses across countries is central to how global growth is generated and shared across countries. Globalization has likely changed the diffusion process, with a large body of literature highlighting the importance of trade and foreign direct investment. Against this background, this chapter takes a closer look at the process of international technology diffusion. It examines whether globalization means that knowledge from technology leaders is spreading faster than it used to, and how this impacts the capacity of other economies to innovate and be more productive.

Short-term momentum:

Will it be sustained?

Interim Economic Outlook

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20 September 2017

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