The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse

White Paper, 2022

In a report titled The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse, an Analysis Group team quantified the potential economic impact of the metaverse if it were to evolve like prior successful technologies in terms of the rate of adoption by users and the impact on GDP. The researchers selected mobile technology as an appropriate analog because of similarities to the metaverse in the way it combined existing and nascent innovations to fundamentally alter global technological and economic landscapes.

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The metaverse is still in its formative stages but is envisioned to comprise an expansive network of digital spaces enabled by developing technologies such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and mixed reality (MR). The Analysis Group team utilized research on previous breakthrough technologies to draw inferences about the potential adoption process and economic impact of the metaverse. In addition, the study team drew from academic literature on the development cycles for innovative technologies and on publicly available data for the deployment and adoption of mobile technology over a number of years to assess direct, indirect, and catalytic or stimulative impacts on factors important for GDP, including job creation, business growth, and economic development.

The researchers concluded that the metaverse has the potential to contribute 2.8% to global gross domestic product (GDP) in the 10th year after the start of its adoption. If adoption began in 2022, for example, the metaverse could contribute $3 trillion to global GDP in 2031.

The study was authored by Analysis Group Managing Principal Laurits Christensen and Manager Alex Robinson, who were supported by a team of economists. The independent study was funded by Meta.

Meta（Facebook）委托国际经济咨询公司Analysis Group编写了一份元宇宙白皮书，该报告以移动设备的发展为依据，预测了元宇宙技术对全球经济的影响。

该报告主要分为四个部分：元宇宙的应用及挑战、移动设备技术与元宇宙的相似性、用经济模型研究移动设备对全球GDP的影响、研究元宇宙的潜在经济市场。

该报告称，如果元宇宙技术从2022年开始被采用，到2031年，元宇宙技术将为全球GDP贡献3.01万亿美元，其中三分之一（1.04万亿美元）来自亚太地区。

报告提到，已经有行业分析师对元宇宙的潜在价值及市场规模进行预估，他们预测在未来几年内元宇宙市场将在8000亿美元-20000亿美元。而当元宇宙被广泛采用后，元宇宙市场将会在3万亿美元-30万亿美元之间，最乐观的估计可超过80万亿美元。

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