Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces

Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches

Edited by Aaron B. Frank, Elizabeth M. Bartels

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Contributors: Aaron B. Frank, Elizabeth M. Bartels, Adam R. Grissom, Jonathan S. Blake, Gabrielle Tarini, Kelly Elizabeth Eusebi, Joseph N. Mait, Elisa Jayne Bienenstock, Andrew M. Parker, Steven W. Popper, et al.

In this report, several authors explore the concept of undergoverned spaces (UGS) and the concepts, challenges, and prospects for developing new approaches to long-term competition in open-ended or infinite games within the context of UGS. This exploration marks an initial step toward developing a functional perspective on determining whether new approaches to strategy and engagement are warranted, and what the implications of those steps might be regarding the actions considered, the rationale for choosing among those actions, and the ways that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and National Security Enterprise (NSE) organize to perform them.

This report is divided into four parts, each presenting different perspectives on the challenges posed by UGS and the opportunities to improve how the United States competes within them.

Key Findings

There are many approaches to describing and understanding UGS.

UGS will remain a strategic challenge regardless of whether U.S. national strategy emphasizes great power competition, the promotion and expansion of international governance institutions, the countering of extremist violent groups, or other objectives.

UGS challenge the decisionmaking processes of DoD and the NSE, and effective engagement will require greater emphasis on being adaptive regarding how decisions are made, who participates in making them, and how policy and operations are executed in complex, open-ended competition.

Long-term competition will require new concepts and approaches that improve the integration of research, analysis, operations, and strategy.

Investments in the social sciences are crucial to better competing in and understanding UGS.

UGS will require new tools and rationales for policymaking that pay explicit attention to uncertainty and seek robustness and adaptiveness as a means for coping with it.

Artificial intelligence will be important but will have a limited impact on strategic decisionmaking and planning in UGS because of their open-endedness.

Research and analysis to support UGS will need more-robust infrastructure and organizations that can continue to accumulate knowledge and support the development of technologies as policy organizations adapt their structures, goals, and operations at a faster pace.

Table of Contents

Chapter One

Introduction: Undergoverned Spaces

Aaron B. Frank, RAND Corporation

Part One

Perspectives on Undergoverned Spaces

Chapter Two

Undergoverned Spaces: Problems and Prospects for a Working Definition

Aaron B. Frank, RAND Corporation

Chapter Three

Undergoverned Spaces and the Challenges of Complex Infinite Competition

Adam R. Grissom, RAND Corporation

Chapter Four

Perspectives on State Governance, Undergovernance, and Alternative Governance

Jonathan S. Blake, Berggruen Institute

Chapter Five

Adaptation, Complexity, and Long-Term Competition in UGS: Perspectives from Policymakers and Technologists

Gabrielle Tarini and Kelly Elizabeth Eusebi, RAND Corporation

Chapter Six

Building Strategies for Long-Term Competition: Infinite Games and Adaptive Planning

Aaron B. Frank, RAND Corporation

Part Two

(Social) Science Investments for Undergoverned Spaces

Chapter Seven

Science and Technology Planning for the Future — Operating in Three Realms

Joseph N. Mait, MITRE Corporation

Chapter Eight

The Need to Invest in Social Science Infrastructure to Address Emerging Crises

Andrew M. Parker, RAND Corporation

Chapter Nine

Operationalizing Social Science for National Security

Elisa Jayne Bienenstock, Arizona State University

Chapter Ten

Why Reasoning Under Uncertainty Is Hard for Both Machines and People — and an Approach to Address the Problem

Edward Geist, RAND Corporation

Part Three

Supporting Long-Term Planning in the Face of Uncertainty and Change

Chapter Eleven

Designing a Robust Decision–Based National Security Policy Process: Strategic Choices for Uncertain Times

Steven W. Popper, RAND Corporation

Chapter Twelve

Toward an Analytic Architecture to Aid Adaptive Strategy for Competing in Undergoverned Spaces

Paul K. Davis, RAND Corporation

Chapter Thirteen

Multi-Stakeholder Research and Analysis for Collective Action in Undergoverned Spaces

Robert J. Lempert, Kelly Klima, and Sara Turner, RAND Corporation

Part Four

Centering Decisions in Analysis for Adaptation and Competition

Chapter Fourteen

Using Technology to Improve the Agility of Force Generation Processes

Zev Winkelman, RAND Corporation

Chapter Fifteen

Authentically Describing and Forecasting Human Behavior for Policy Analysis: A Review and a Path Forward

Ben Connable, DT Institute

Chapter Sixteen

Short-Term Opportunities, Medium-Run Bottlenecks, and Long-Time Barriers to Progress in the Evolution of an Agent-Based Social Science

Robert L. Axtell, George Mason University

Chapter Seventeen

Difficulties in Analyzing Strategic Interaction: Quantifying Complexity

Justin Grana, RAND Corporation

Chapter Eighteen

Evolving Security: Societal Immunity and Competing Demons or Cooperating Angels

James R. Watson, Oregon State University, Michael J. Gaines and Aaron B. Frank, RAND Corporation

Chapter Nineteen

Gaming Undergoverned Spaces: Emerging Approaches for Complex National Security Policy Problems

Elizabeth M. Bartels, Aaron B. Frank, Yuna Huh Wong, Jasmin Léveillé, and Timothy Marler, RAND Corporation

Chapter Twenty

Epilogue

Elizabeth M. Bartels and Aaron B. Frank, RAND Corporation

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