TRADE STATISTICS AND OUTLOOK

Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy

2020-2021 年世界贸易展望

----新冠病毒大流行颠覆全球经济，贸易将大幅下跌

2020-04-12 来源：新兴经济体论坛

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（原文：WTO PRESS/855 PRESS RELEASE；翻译：新兴经济体论坛翻译团队）

新冠病毒大流行在全世界范围内严重扰乱正常的经济活动和日常生活，受其

影响，2020 年世界贸易预计将下降13%-32%。

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WTO Annual Report 2020

World Trade Report 2019

The future of services trade

Services have become the most dynamic component of global trade, with an increasingly important role in the global economy and in everyday life. Yet the extent of services’ contribution to global trade is not always fully understood. The World Trade Report 2019 attempts to remedy this by examining how trade in services is evolving and why services trade matters.

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The Report uses a new dataset developed by the WTO that captures the various ways in which services are supplied across borders, providing a new estimate of the total value of services trade.

Major trends affecting trade in services, including demographic changes, digital technologies, rising incomes and climate change, are examined. The Report also looks at how services trade may evolve over the next 20 years and how it may contribute increasingly to inclusive growth and development.

The Report examines how costs for services are declining, largely due to the impact of digital technologies, and how this is expected to expand the share of services in global trade. It concludes that if economies are to reap the benefits of the growing role of services trade, international cooperation will need to intensify.

The publication also includes a number of external contributions in the form of opinion pieces.

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World Trade Report 2018: The future of world trade

How digital technologies are transforming global commerce

Trade has always been shaped by technology but the rapid development of digital technologies in recent times has the potential to transform international trade profoundly in the years to come. The World Trade Report 2018 examines how digital technologies – and in particular the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, 3D printing and Blockchain – affect trade costs, the nature of what is traded and the composition of trade. It estimates how global trade may be affected by these technologies over the next 15 years.

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The Report finds that one of the most significant impacts of digital technologies is the extent to which they will reduce trade costs. In addition, digital technologies will affect the composition of trade by increasing the services component, fostering trade in certain goods such as time-sensitive products, changing patterns of comparative advantage and affecting the complexity and length of global value chains. A number of simulations outlined in the Report show that future technological changes are expected to increase trade growth, especially in trade in services, and that developing countries are likely to gain an increasing share of global trade.

The Report concludes that the expansion of digital trade is likely to entail considerable benefits but that international cooperation is needed to help governments ensure that digital trade continues to be an engine of inclusive economic development.

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World Trade Report 2020

Government policies to promote innovation in the digital age

In recent years, a growing number of governments have adopted policies aimed at supporting the transition towards a digital economy. The World Trade Report 2020 looks at these policy trends and at how trade and the WTO fit with them.

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Trade and trade policies have historically been important engines for innovation. In particular, the multilateral trading system has contributed significantly to the global diffusion of innovation and technology by fostering predictable global market conditions and by underpinning the development of global value chains. As data become an essential input in the digital economy, firms rely more on intangible assets than on physical ones, and digital firms are able to reach global markets faster without the amount of physical investment previously necessary in other sectors. Success in the digital economy will depend on openness, access to information and communication technology (ICT) goods and services, collaboration on research projects, and the diffusion of knowledge and new technology.

The World Trade Report 2020 shows that international cooperation can play a significant role in making the pursuit of digital development and technological innovation more effective, while minimizing negative spill-overs from national policies. The WTO agreements, reached a quarter of a century ago, have proved to be remarkably forward-looking in providing a framework that has favoured the development of ICT-enabled economies across all levels of development. Further international cooperation at the WTO and elsewhere would enable continued innovation and reduce trade tensions, helping international markets function more predictably.

先向大家介绍一下报告产生背景：近年来，越来越多的政府都采取了支持向数字经济过渡的政策，都旨在通过创新和技术升级来促进经济的增长。而受与COVID-19大流行相关的国内经济影响，各国也都加强了这些政策。于是这份《2020年世界贸易报告》应运而生，报告主要着眼于政府这些政策趋势以及贸易和世贸组织将要如何去适应这些趋势。

可以看到的是，在此份报告中，关于数字经济，数字化，数字贸易，开放，开源等都是高频出现的词汇，这其实也反映了世贸组织对当下世界经济趋势的分析和预判。

报告主要分为三个部分：分别从政府政策，数字经济时代的数字贸易和国际合作三个方面进行了阐述。

首先，政府政策方面。

报告指出，今天，政府政策的主要特征就是支持向数字经济的过渡。在所谓的“新产业政策”下，政府政策旨在将国内生产转向支持数字技术的生产，同时促进成熟产业的现代化上。这种转变其实也就突出了创新和技术对于经济增长的日益重要性。

在许多国家，政府政策试图通过改善商业环境或使经济活动的结构向那些有望比没有此类干预提供更好的经济增长或社会福利前景的部门，技术或任务倾斜。通常情况下，各国政府有动力在部门一级执行政策，以促进长期增长，增加收入和生产率，并以此作为实现这些目标的具体政策，促进企业家精神，创新，技术转让，技能开发和竞争。

其次就是在决策的每个阶段，政府必须权衡多个目标，从纠正实际，感知市场失灵的尝试到管理成熟行业的变化，同时促进新兴产业和技术的发展。在过去的二十年中，各个经济体已经通过日益外向型的政策实现了这些目标，并认识到开放性（进入更大的市场和竞争的加剧）会促使企业进行创新。

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而在数字经济时代则进一步强调了对开放性的需求。数字经济的成功很大程度上就取决于开放性，这其中，就特别提到了开源技术的重要性。一些发展中国家依靠开源技术的软件或app去采取了积极的政策框架，以促进基础设施的建设和数字化生产，从而去追赶上发达国家的脚步。

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最后，报告显示，要使政府的外向型政策更有效，就必须加强国际合作。

国际合作在使数字发展和技术创新的追求更加有效的同时，也可以最大限度地减少国家政策的负面溢出效应。这其中再一次提到了开源软件的重要性，开源软件使得分散的组织方式成为可能，通过个体之间的相互合作和资源的共享，来促进数字创新。

而在全球贸易方面，多边贸易体系在全球市场条件下的确定性和可预测性为全球创新和技术传播做出了巨大贡献，特别是通过支撑全球价值链的崛起。各国通过进口资本货物，技术手段以及通过伙伴关系和全球价值链参与积累知识，从而获得了先进技术。而世贸组织协议在提供一个有利于在各个发展水平上促进以通信技术为基础的经济发展的框架方面，具有明显的前瞻性。

在未来，世贸组织和其他地方将通过进一步的国际合作使持续创新和减轻贸易紧张局势成为可能，从而有助于国际市场发挥更大作用。

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World Trade Report 2017

Trade, technology and jobs

The 2017 World Trade Report examines how technology and trade affect employment and wages. It analyses the challenges for workers and firms in adjusting to changes in labour markets, and how governments can facilitate such adjustment to ensure that trade and technology are inclusive.

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The Report looks, in particular, at the part played by technology and trade in the shift of employment from manufacturing to services, in the decreasing proportion of middle-skilled jobs, in the growing value placed on skills within the jobs market and in the increasing participation of women in the workforce.

The Report finds that labour markets have evolved in many different ways across countries, suggesting that country-specific factors play a pivotal role. It also finds that although technological advances and trade have yielded important benefits for economies overall, certain types of workers and/or regions may sometimes be adversely affected. Although interrelated, technology more than trade appears to be responsible for the decreasing share of manufacturing jobs and for the declining number of middle-skill jobs relative to low- and high-skill jobs.

The publication concludes that helping workers adjust to changes in the labour market and ensuring that benefits are spread more widely can increase the positive impact of open trade and technological progress.

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World Trade Report 2016

Levelling the trading field for SMEs

The 2016 World Trade Report examines the participation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in international trade, how the international trade landscape is changing for SMEs, and what the multilateral trading system does and can do to encourage more widespread and inclusive SME participation in global markets.

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Today’s increasingly interconnected global economy is transforming what is traded and who is trading. International trade has long been dominated by large companies. But thanks to dramatically reduced trade barriers, improved transportation links, information technologies and the emergence of global value chains, many SMEs now have the potential to become successful global traders as well. Participation in international trade, once exclusive, can progressively become more inclusive.

The 2016 World Trade Report examines the participation of SMEs in international trade. It finds that small businesses continue to face disproportionate barriers to trade and highlights the scope for coherent national and international policy actions that would enhance the ability of SMEs to participate in world markets more effectively. It underlines that participation in trade has an important role to play in helping SMEs become more productive and grow. For open trade and global integration to fully benefit everyone, it is crucial to ensure that all firms – not just large corporations – can succeed in today’s global marketplace.

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