Evaluation of the Air Force's Next-Generation Air Dominance Program Technology Maturity (Project No. D2022-DEV0SR-0176.000)

An Assessment of U.S. Military Power

Army, Navy, USAF, USMC, Space, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, Cyber

Space Threat Assessment 2023

Welcome to the sixth edition of Space Threat Assessment by the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This resource for policymakers and the public leverages open-source information to assess key developments in foreign counterspace weapons. Drawing on six years of collected data and analyses, this series describes trends in the development, testing, and use of counterspace weapons and enables readers to develop a deeper understanding of threats to U.S. national security interests in space. The past year was dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where space capabilities, including commercial satellites, played a highly visible and compelling role in Ukraine’s resistance to the invasion. Thus, this year’s featured analysis provides an in-depth look at Russia’s battlefield employment of counterspace weapons. As space capabilities continue to demonstrate their utility, from peacetime to conflict, it should come as no surprise that adversaries seek to block their use.

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This year’s assessment covers the growing space and counterspace capabilities of China, Russia, India, Iran, North Korea, and other nations. For more detail on past counterspace weapons tests, including historical tests by the United States and the Soviet Union, please review the prior Space Threat Assessments (editions 2018–2022) or visit the Aerospace Secu­rity Project’s interactive online timeline at https://aerospace.csis.org/counterspace-timeline/.

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Use of Predictive Analytic Tools to Assess Technological Emergences and Acquisition Targets

by Richard Silberglitt, Anna Jean Wirth, Christopher A. Eusebi, Inez Khan, Jasmin Léveillé, Steven W. Popper

The United States has been the international leader in science and technology of importance to national security for three-quarters of a century. However, the development by other nations of their own science and technology capabilities, in concert with and fueled by increasing globalization and connectivity of economic and technological development, has increased competition for technological leadership. The authors use patent filings to analyze the current relative positions of the United States and other countries in selected technology areas of interest to the Department of the Air Force: additive manufacturing, artificial intelligence, ceramics, quantum, sensors, and space.

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Areas of technological emergence were identified by detecting rapid growth in cumulative patent applications in specific technology areas and whether this occurred in the United States or China. The authors also describe and analyze the patent portfolios of U.S. companies that were early filers in these areas, focusing on small or medium-size companies that were not already owned or controlled by foreign entities; this, in turn, enabled identification of companies that had specific leading technological capabilities that could make them attractive for possible foreign acquisition. The authors propose a method to simultaneously identify connected areas of technological emergence and the companies with leading capabilities in these areas.

Key Findings

Over the entire period studied (1990–2017), the United States was the leader in far more emergences than any other country.

In cases in which the United States was the leader and China was the follower, the time difference between leader and follower was substantially greater on average than when China was the leader and the United States was the follower.

Although the United States remained the overwhelming leader in first emergences, for close emergences since 2001, there was a significant time-dependent shift in the number of early patent applications in the United States versus China.

Recommendations

Perform a detailed comparison of early filers in the United States and China and assess the relative quality of patent applications and products on the world market from early filers in each country in order to assess the extent to which China is approaching parity with or surpassing the United States in areas of recent close emergence.

Analyze the development of the U.S. technology network inferred from patent examiner co-assignments over time to identify connections between emergent technological areas (as indicated by these co-assignments) and the companies that are early filers in these connected emergent areas in order to identify the technology areas in which the United States has leading capabilities with broad applications.

Table of Contents

Chapter One

Introduction and Background

Chapter Two

Methods for Analyzing Patent Data

Chapter Three

International Patenting Trends: A Study of Competition Between the United States and China

Chapter Four

Leading Filers in Technology Areas of Interest

Chapter Five

Conclusions and Next Steps

Appendix

Supporting Information on Statistical Methods

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IDC MarketScape

IDC MarketScape: Worldwide SaaS and Cloud-Enabled

Asset-Intensive EAM Applications 2019 Vendor Assessment

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Kevin Permenter Mickey North Rizza Frank Della Rosa

THIS IDC MARKETSCAPE EXCERPT FEATURES IBM

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全球科技创新中心评估报告

Global Scientific and Technological Innovation Centers Evaluation Report

上海市经济信息中心

Open Arms

Evaluating Global Exposure to China’s Defense-Industrial Base

C4ADS 2019年9月26日

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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has placed great emphasis on transforming the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a next-generation warfighting force. To build the modern defense- industrial base needed for this task, the CCP is stepping up its strategy of Military-Civil Fusion (MCF). MCF is ushering Chinese companies into the defense economy even as Beijing’s policies encourage companies to innovate by acquiring and adapting foreign technology. The confluence of MCF with this approach obscures the distinction between civilian and military uses. Given China’s extensive business and academic presence abroad, there is a clear risk that foreign strategic technologies and expertise could inadvertently contribute to China’s growing military capabilities. However, for MCF to succeed, the PLA and China’s defense apparatus must radically alter their opaque postures to operate in a market environment, creating visible indicators of participation in the defense economy that can be evaluated using publicly available information (PAI).

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This report identifies 14 public indicators that regulators, investigators, and due diligence officers can use to evaluate counterparty risk. To do so, the report analyzes China’s defense ecosystem and the activities and characteristics of Chinese companies participating in military supply chains

据官员的说法和一份新报告，北京方面正越来越多地利用民营企业为中国军队购买外国技术。这种策略促使美国领导人呼吁调整美国国家安全政策。

中国国家主席习近平正敦促这些公司参与国防合同竞标，这是旨在升级军工行业的“军民融合”发展战略的组成部分。该行业长期由几个效率低下的国有承包商和研究机构主导。

军民融合发展战略在非盈利组织C4ADS的一份新报告中被重点提及，这让美国官员感到警惕。中国政府致力于建设有能力在亚洲乃至亚洲之外挑战美国的世界一流军队，美国官员担心军民融合是该项行动的一个核心纲领。C4ADS对安全问题进行数据分析，并以详细描述朝鲜如何逃避制裁的报告而知名。

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华为网络安全评估中心监督委员会2018年度报告