谁将主导汽车产业的未来

工业4.0研究院汽车研究中心

CRC，Car Research Center

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2019年6月17日【更新中……】

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The Great Divide: What Automotive Consumers are Buying vs. Auto & Supplier Investments in Future Technologies, Products & Business Models

Authors:

Carla Bailo Kristin Dziczek Brett Smith Adela Spulber Yen Chen Michael Schultz

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Produced By: Industry, Labor, & Economics Group, Materials & Manufacturing Technology, Propulsion Technologies and Energy Infrastructure Group, Transportation Systems Analysis Group

Categories: Connected Vehicle Transportation, Emerging Industry Trends, Forecasts, Mobility, Powertrain, Propulsion, Regulations, Workforce

Full Description:

The U.S. automotive industry is in the midst of a critical period. U.S. light vehicle sales are plateauing at a very high level and include a rich mix of pickup trucks, SUVs, and CUVs that are producing record profits. Despite all the new truck, SUV, and CUV launches at last month’s NAIAS, the companies’ presentations focused on the future of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies, new mobility service models, and advanced powertrain solutions. Automakers are making big bets and hope they will pay off. Ford Chairman Bill Ford summed up the divide when he announced his company’s $11 billion investment in EVs in January 2018, “…we’re all in now. The only question is will the customers be there with us, and we think they will.”

This research addresses the U.S. segment mix, the impact of CAV on personal vehicle ownership, the tension between consumer demand and regulatory mandates on EVs, and the implication for the nation’s engineering and skilled talent development institutions and the overall technological leadership of the United States.

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Impact of Automated, Connected, Electric, and Shared (ACES) Vehicles on Design, Materials, Manufacturing, and Business Models

Authors:

Shashank Modi Adela Spulber Justin Jin

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Produced By: Materials & Manufacturing Technology

Categories: Connected Vehicle Technology, Manufacturing, Materials

Full Description:

The automotive industry is going through an unprecedented change with advancements in innovative technologies and changing consumer preferences. In the future, it is likely that city transportation will be dominated by automated, connected, electric, and shared (ACES) vehicles. The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) took an initiative to research the impacts of ACES vehicles on design, materials, manufacturing, and business models. CAR researchers interviewed multiple experts at vehicle manufacturers, tier-1 suppliers, and new mobility companies. CAR also organized a workshop on this topic. This paper is a consolidation of expert opinions collected during the interviews and the workshop.

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Future Cities: Navigating the New Era of Mobility

Authors:

Adela Spulber Valerie Sathe Brugeman Eric Paul Dennis, P.E. Zahra Bahrani Fard

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Produced By: Transportation Systems Analysis Group

Categories: Connected Vehicle Technology, Connected Vehicle Transportation, Mobility, Transportation Planning

Full Description:

This report was commissioned by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) Automotive Office to assess the potential impacts of CAVs and innovative mobility services on local communities in the state of Michigan. Bringing its communities up-to-date on the impacts of CAVs and innovative mobility services is important to ensure Michigan remains a leader in CAV development. These technologies and services promise many benefits for local Michigan communities, but in many cases, new infrastructure or policies are required to maximize their societal benefits and overall effectiveness. This policy development and infrastructure deployment will often require an innovative and collaborative approach between local (city, township, county, charter township, and village) units of government, state agencies, in partnership with private organizations.

Communities that understand the potential challenges and benefits of IMS and CAVs and make wise capital investments based on that knowledge will be more attractive to both companies and residents. Communities that best adapt to these new mobility technologies and services will be best positioned to manage this investment.

This report first defines connected and automated vehicle technologies and various innovative mobility services. It also discusses the potential impacts these vehicles and mobility services will have on communities and transportation systems. The report concludes with guidelines for communities to maximize the benefits of CAVs and IMS for their residents, businesses, visitors and governmental entities which help to position Michigan as a leader.

With this knowledge, Michigan communities will be well-positioned to take advantage of various technology advancements and make sound decisions on infrastructure investments, transportation plans, and strategic master planning.

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Implementation Recommendations for Management Procedures for Data Collected via CAV

Authors:

Zahra Bahrani Fard Adela Spulber Brian Reed

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Produced By: Transportation Systems Analysis Group

Categories: Connected Vehicle Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems, Mobility, Transportation Planning

Full Description:

The report first reviews six MDOT data systems: Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS), Regional Integrated Transportation Information System (RITIS), Transportation Asset Management System (TAMS), Data Use Analysis and Processing (DUAP), Truck Parking Information Management System (TPIMS), and Road Weather Information System (RWIS). While MDOT had been proactive in ITS and CAV applications development and adoption, several programs and their underlying ITS and CAV data systems have been launched successfully but independently of each other. Current standards and best practices encourage broad interconnectivity and interoperability of these data systems, especially through the use of national ITS data standards and enterprise data warehouse techniques. Therefore, the report recommends strategies to develop integrated, dynamic, and adaptive data management systems based on data management and analysis best practices and MDOT representatives’ insights about current data management practices.

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Impact of Overseas Tooling Sourcing by Automakers on U.S. Based Tool & Die Firms

Authors:

Abhay (Abe) Vadhavkar

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Produced By: Materials & Manufacturing Technology

Categories: Stamping, Tool & Die, Tooling

Full Description:

U.S. tool & die manufacturers have provided U.S. automakers a local source for new model tooling for more than a century but, the industry is at a crossroads. U.S.-based shops have experienced a significant decline in new tools sourced from automakers over the past two decades. While cost models continue to improve, CAR researchers think a more comprehensive accounting of financial costs associated with sourcing and producing new tooling in LCCs is needed. Other issues such as tariffs, availability of skilled trades, capacity constraints, the widening technology gap, as well as communication and logistics are difficult to quantify. Even though die manufacturing continues to be on the critical path for automobile model launch, the U.S. tool & die industry is experiencing a rapid decline in business. The three critical action steps that CAR has identified are, developing a comprehensive accounting of all costs associated with overseas sourcing, creating a strategic effort to support U.S. tool & die industry to implement new technologies, and promoting a wide-scale commitment to manufacturing skills development.

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Trade Briefing: U.S. Consumer & Economic Impacts of U.S. Automotive Trade Policies

Authors:

Michael Schultz Kristin Dziczek Bernard Swiecki Yen Chen

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Produced By: Industry, Labor, & Economics Group

Categories: Economic Contribution Analysis, Employment, Forecasts, Trade

Full Description:

U.S. trade policy changes are projected to raise consumer prices for new and used vehicles and lower U.S. light vehicle sales, employment, and economic output. The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) estimates that the cumulative effect of current and potential U.S. trade actions on automobiles and auto parts could cause new car prices to rise by USD 2,750 on average. CAR estimates that the price of even U.S.-built vehicles could increase as much as USD 1,900 due to the current share of imported parts content, and imported vehicle prices could rise by as much as USD 3,700. The vast majority of the estimated price impacts are attributable to the potential auto and parts tariffs that the Administration is considering imposing under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended.

CAR’s analysis assumes that Canada, Mexico, and South Korea are exempt from potential Section 232 auto and based on the Korea-United States free trade agreement (KORUS) and exemptions from Section 232 auto and parts tariffs for Canada and Mexico that were agreed to in side letters to the USMCA that was signed in November 2018.

Rather than help the U.S. automotive and parts industries, the cumulative effect of the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, Section 301 China tariffs, USMCA, and the potential 25 percent Section 232 tariff on imported autos and auto parts could lead to a 1.3 million drop in U.S. light vehicle sales, 366,900 fewer U.S. jobs, and $30.4 billion lower U.S. economic output (Gross Domestic Product). U.S. new automobile dealerships could lose as many as 77,000 jobs and $43.6 billion in revenue.

Used vehicle prices will also rise due to heightened demand and constricted supply, and higher automotive parts prices will drive up the price of vehicle maintenance and repair, so even holding on to an existing vehicle will become more expensive.

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Advancing Additive Manufacturing into the Mobility Industry

Authors:

Shashank Modi Abhay (Abe) Vadhavkar

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Produced By: Materials & Manufacturing Technology

Categories: 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing, Manufacturing, Production, Prototyping

Full Description:

Future cities will likely be dominated by automated, connected, electric, and shared (ACES) vehicles. Automotive customers are demanding greater vehicle personalization and unique ride experiences. Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a revolutionary group of technologies that can help automakers cater to the desires of their customers by providing unique solutions for vehicle design, manufacturing, and the overall automotive business. However, for advancing AM towards applications in automotive mass production, AM’s inherent challenges must be addressed. To obtain an industry perspective, CAR organized brainstorming sessions with representatives from multiple automakers and suppliers to discuss the advancement in AM, challenges to incorporating its adoption, and the path forward. This whitepaper consolidates a summary of the discussions from the meetings and an extensive literature survey performed by the CAR team.

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