Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis

Unmanned Aerial Systems Intelligent Swarm Technology

Published Feb 15, 2024

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by Daniel M. Gerstein, Erin N. Leidy

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) or drone technologies, both individual systems and swarms of UASs, have proliferated over the past 25 years for a wide variety of applications. As a result, this technology and the ability to employ these UAS capabilities represent both a current and a growing threat as the technology continues to mature.

In this report, researchers assess intelligent swarm technology, considering technology availability, as well as risks and scenarios (threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences) in the next three years, three to five years, and five to ten years. In addition, the researchers consider whether preparedness or mitigation and response activities would be undertaken that could reduce the risk as the technology evolves. The researchers conclude that, whether surrogate drone swarms or intelligent drone swarm technology is employed, these systems present a significant risk to the homeland, and vulnerabilities and consequences will likely be challenging to mitigate.

Key Findings

UASs, or drone technologies, for both individual systems and for surrogate swarms represent a current threat and, in the case of intelligent swarms, a growing threat given continued advances in range, payload, and power as UAS technology continues to mature.

The maturing of intelligent swarms will come at the convergence of multiple technologies, including artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of Things, and 5G, which will combine to support the development and employment of these capabilities.

The risks of the illicit use of intelligent swarms will continue to grow over time; however, attacks will likely remain localized, with the potential for impacts to be felt regionally in some cases, such as cyber or electromagnetic attacks against the electrical grid. This would mean the consequences are likely to remain moderate because they are not likely to have a national impact.

Vulnerabilities and consequences will likely be challenging to mitigate for homeland security defenders (e.g., law enforcement officers, first responders, planners, and workers in critical infrastructure sectors), because fielding detection systems and countermeasures across the range of potential targets could be extremely costly.

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Mission Planning of a Quadcopter Using a Digital Twin

Maria Gavilan

Sara Nambi

Investor Overview

June 2023

Elbit Systems

Investor Conference 2023

March 2023

Investor Conference

March 2022

Elbit Systems

Investor Conference

April 2021

Elbit Systems

Deterrence by Detection: A Key Role for Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Great Power Competition

April 14, 2020

Thomas G. Mahnken, Travis Sharp, Grace B. Kim

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In an era of renewed great power competition, one of the most significant challenges the United States and its allies face is the need to deny China or Russia the ability to launch opportunistic acts of aggression against an ally or partner in the Western Pacific or Eastern Europe. There is increasing concern among defense policymakers in the United States and its allies and partners that China and Russia are developing the ability to launch aggression rapidly against states on their periphery under the cover of increasingly capable reconnaissance-strike networks. With limited warning, Beijing or Moscow could exploit their time-distance advantage to seize allied territory before the United States and its allies could respond, thereby creating a fait accompli that would be difficult to reverse after the fact.

In CSBA’s latest study, Deterrence by Detection: A Key Role for Unmanned Systems in Great Power Competition, CSBA President and CEO Dr. Thomas G. Mahnken, Research Fellow Travis Sharp, and Senior Analyst Grace Kim propose a new operational concept to deter Chinese and Russian aggression, one that uses a network of existing non-stealthy long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to maintain real-time, persistent situational awareness in key geographic areas in the Western Pacific and Eastern Europe. The authors argue that real-time situational awareness is critical to countering the twin challenges of sub-conventional gray zone aggres­sion and a conventional fait accompli gambit promptly and effectively.

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Department of Defense Directed Energy Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress

Updated September 13, 2022

Congressional Research Service

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https://crsreports.congress.gov

R46925

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